Deflation? Inflation? Lessons from the Three Little Pigs

by Steve Stanganelli, CFP ®, CRPC ®
Just when you thought it was safe to get back into the investing waters, talk of deflation has creeped back into conversation.

Why does it matter? Well, how you position your portfolio to deal with these two scenarios will make a big difference to your personal bottom line.

With inflation, your money is worth less the longer you hold onto it. So you’re more likely to spend in the now because prices may be moving up.

With deflation, your money may buy more later the longer you hold onto it as prices continue to drop. (Not good for a seller but a better deal for a buyer – just ask someone trying to sell a house in Florida these days).

Since consumers respond differently to these two opposing forces, the ultimate direction of them can have a decidedly different impact on how the recovery progresses because of the way consumers react and business respond to their actions. Ultimately, this will impact how to position an investment portfolio accordingly.

The Right Hook
During a fight a boxer may expect to be hit from both the right and left. It’s just not known when and with how much force. But a good boxer, like a Boy Scout, knows to be prepared.

First the economy has been peppered with jabs from the right that could result in higher inflation: expanding money supply, ballooning government deficits, higher commodity prices, weak currency value.

Given the huge inherited, current and projected government deficits here and abroad, the conventional thought has been that all of this government stimulus will ultimately result in “crowding out” private investment and raise the ugly head of higher inflation down the road. The prospect of higher taxes to pay for these past deficits also lends support to these thoughts.

Recent run-ups in certain commodity prices like oil and energy products have resulted in a rise in consumer prices in January bolstering fears of inflation.

The Left Hook

Now comes the left hook – the deflationary threat: asset prices continuing to fall, increasing slack in industrial capacity, and continuing pressure keeping a lid on labor expenses because of high unemployment.

Credit is still tight with bank lending down. While dollars have been pumped into the economy through the TARP program, it’s mostly sitting in bank vaults. Money that isn’t circulating isn’t a cause of inflation.

Recent economic reports have indicated that core consumer prices actually are flat, well below the 10-year average of 2.2%.

Despite some recent reports, housing prices and rents are down and still expected to fall in key markets, dampening the immediate threat of inflation.

Defensive Portfolios: Lessons from Spencer

The best and strongest home depends on your environment and the threats faced.

Each evening before putting our infant son, Spencer, to bed, we read a story. The favorite for now is


The Three Little Pigs
(undoubtedly because of Spencer’s dad’s animation).
We all know the story: Three pigs, three houses built from different materials, one pig survives because of his well-built brick house.

The same can be said for portfolios. Heck, a house of sticks can provide some shelter in some circumstances but what happens if a big bad wolf shows up?

Since we don’t know which type of bad wolf will be showing up at the door (inflation or deflation), it makes sense to be positioned to survive either threat.

The elements of a portfolio will likely be the same regardless of an investor’s mind-set. The differences will be in the proportion of the components used.

Inflation Protection Portfolio
To protect this type of portfolio consider elements more likely to retain value even as inflation increases. Example: Commodity funds or ETFs; inflation-linked fixed income funds that include TIPS and/or floating rate notes; Real Estate Investment Trusts or REIT funds (10%); Cash to take advantage of higher short-term interest rates.

Deflation Protection Portfolio
The majority of this type of portfolio is positioned in long-term Treasurys followed by cash and municipal bonds. As consumer prices and interest rates fall, the fixed income stream from the bonds would be worth more.

To protect against surprise inflation, a smaller proportion would be set aside into TIPS, commodities and higher-quality/large cap US stocks.

Little Pig, Little Pig, Let Me In
Not sure where the market will go? Not sure which threat to expect? Learn from the third little pig: Build the strongest house possible.

If there is inflation, the economy will be expanding. As such equities will be the place to be. So consider an allocation of 20% to 25% in the US and a like amount in foreign equities. A portion of these equities should include high-quality firms that are dividend-paying. Commodities and cash will likely benefit from inflation so a 10% allocation to each is prudent. The fixed income component can include some exposure to TIPS (5%) as well as intermediate high-quality bonds (20% – 30%).

To hedge against the risk of deflation, a portfolio with exposure to municipal bonds (5%) and long-term Treasurys (5% – 10%). And some of the equity portfolio should include exposure to consumer staples that tend to do well in such an environment.

To provide some added diversification consider adding positions in companies that focus on infrastructure and firms that can maintain pricing power like utilities, pipeline operators and the like.

Taking these steps should allow an investor to sleep better at night. At least it works for Spencer.

About Steve Stanganelli, CFP ®, CRPC ®
Steve Stanganelli, CFP ®, CRPC ® is a five-star rated, board-certified financial planning professional with over 20 years of investment and banking experience coaching individuals and businesses on ways to improve and protect their bottom line.
His practice encompasses qualified plan design, retirement income planning, investment management, college funding strategies and exit planning for business owners and professionals.
Steve is a published author on financial matters and has appeared on Boston-area TV and radio. He has also presented on real estate investing strategies to the Greater Lowell Landlord Association.
Steve holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER ™ and CHARTERED RETIREMENT PLANNING COUNSELOR(sm) designations and has been awarded a Five-Star Quality Rating by independent advisor rating service, the Paladin Registry, earned by fewer than 3% of financial planners.

See his insightful blog: http://moneylinkpro.wordpress.com

Rental Property Quick Fixes

by Michael Monteiro

When it comes to tiny property repairs, a molehill can very easily become a mountain if it’s not resolved quickly.
Whether you’re a DIY kind of person or would prefer to have a contractor or handyman take care of your property’s repairs, time is of the essence.
Not only is it important to take care of repairs and maintenance quickly for your tenants’ sakes, but also for your bank account’s. In so many cases, a little problem that goes unaddressed can turn into a big, expensive problem not so far down the line.
Budget for the unexpected.
Setting money aside for those unexpected repairs that always come up sooner or later is one of the smartest moves you can make as a landlord. No matter how good your intentions are, it’s almost impossible to move on any repair quickly if the funding simply isn’t there.

Move quickly, no matter how innocent an issue appears.
Cracked plaster? Leaking roof? Chipped window? All of these are examples of “little” issues that are easy to set aside, but will only grow with time. Cracked plaster can easily begin to crumble, resulting in a much bigger mess. A leak can expand and run rampant, causing significant water damage. A tiny window chip can quickly spread, leaving no other option than a complete window replacement.

Maintenance and small repairs go hand-in-hand.
There are some maintenance duties that count just as much as repairs, and should be performed just as efficiently. Cleaning gutters on a bi-annual basis, for example, is critical. Sure, it may not seem like the most pressing job, but you’ll save yourself a lot of money in the long run. Other regular maintenance work that staves off big repairs includes: draining your water heater (once a year); cleaning stove grease filters (every time a tenant moves out); and turning off the water for exterior water faucets (every year when the temperature dips below freezing).
Keep the basics on-hand.If you choose to take the DIY route when it comes to repairs and maintenance, make sure you have the basic tools you’ll need to complete a range of tasks on-hand. You’ll be much more likely to take care of things quickly if everything you need to do it is easily accessible. Click here for tips on putting a basic home repair tool kit together—and, of course, you can add to this kit over time.

Have a professional in mind ahead of time.
Much as it pays to budget for problems before they happen, it also pays to research handyman and contractor options ahead of time. If you already know exactly who the man for the job is, you won’t have to waste any time once the need for a repair crops up.
Repairs don’t have to be a big deal. But they may well become one if not addressed in a timely manner. Having a plan of action in place before repair items ever arise and a no-holds-barred attitude about addressing them immediately is a great way to save yourself a lot of money in the long-run.

Michael Monteiro works for Buildium LLC, maker of online property management software and landlord software for professional property managers, condos and homeowner associations (HOAs) and is author of the The Buildium Property Management Blog.

Advertising your Vacant Rentals

These days there seems to be an abundance vacant apartments for rent. Making your vacant rental units stand out from the rest may take a little bit of effort, particularly when there are a dozen other apartments similar to what you are offering. Scroll through any of these rental sites and it’s immediately apparent that most rental listings use a very specific formula. All you have to do is break that mold and you’ll be much closer to making sure that your listings grab the attention of potential renters.

Make your listing title count.
Set yourself apart from the pack from the get-go. Rather than using a standard listing title like $995 – 1 bd/1 ba, take advantage of the listing title as your first opportunity to appeal to potential tenants. After all, if they never click on your listing, posting it is a futile effort.

Obviously, you’ll need to keep the title short, but that doesn’t mean you can’t provide enough information to reel potential tenants in. While you’ll want to include the number of bedrooms in your listing title, it’s also a great place to showcase your unit’s amenities or unique features. Some things you may want to consider featuring in your listing title are: on-site washer and dryer, off-street parking, heat and hot water included, or any rental incentives you’re offering. Titles are also a great place to highlight distinctive unit characteristics like a fireplace, alcove, or garden.

Be as specific as possible.
There’s no reason to hold back—make sure your listing gives potential renters as much information as possible as well as a real flavor for the unit. Avoid generic adjectives like “nice” and “great” and instead use words that really help potential renters visualize the unit: spacious, bright, classic, or modern. When deciding which listings to pursue, potential tenants are more likely to take action on those listings that leave a lasting, visual impression. Carefully chosen, specific adjectives are one of the most effective ways of creating this sort of image.

Be thorough in your description.
Really take your time when it comes to writing your listing, and make sure you’re including all of the features that make your unit unique. Some of your biggest selling points may not be amenities at all but, rather, things like the fact that your building is on a quiet street or close to grocery stores and shops. But again, take your time writing these listings; sometimes it’s hard to see the most impressive or note-worthy things about a place you’re overly-familiar with.

A picture says a thousand words.
Particularly on Craigslist—which has a specific search function that eliminates listings without images from user results—you’ll want to include pictures with your rental listings. A tip about images: Some rental listings include pictures of dirty or messy apartments simply because the property manager cannot do anything about tidying up while the departing tenant is still occupying the unit. Even though potential renters understand the unit will be cleaned before it’s rented out, untidy apartments still don’t leave a great first impression, and that’s what listings are all about. To avoid such situations, always keep stock pictures of your units on-hand for use in this type of scenario.

New Lead Paint Requirements commencing April 22, 2010

RRP RULE AND NEW LEAD-SAFE PRACTICES REQUIREMENT AFFECTING LANDLORDS BEGINNING APRIL 22, 2010

The EPA has issued a Renovation, Repair and Paint rule (RRP) requiring the use of lead-safe practices and other actions aimed at preventing lead poisoning. Under the rule, beginning April 22, 2010, landlords and contractors performing renovation, repair and painting projects that disturb lead-based paint in rental property built before 1978 must be certified and must follow specific work practices to prevent lead contamination. Common renovation activities like sanding, cutting, and demolition can create hazardous lead dust and chips by disturbing lead-based paint, which can be harmful to adults and children.

What types of properties and facilities does the lead paint rule apply to?

The RRP Rule applies to "residential houses, apartments, and child-occupied facilities such as schools and day-care facilities built before 1978." In addition, the rule must be followed when "repair or maintenance activities disturb more than 6 square feet of paint per room inside, or more than 20 square feet on the exterior of a home or building." Renovation is broadly defined as any activity that disturbs painted surfaces and includes most repair, remodeling, and maintenance activities, including window replacement.

Exceptions?

The EPA outlines activities which are excluded from the rule, such as emergency repairs and "minor' repair or maintenance, including work with less than six square feet of disturbed interior space. However, the EPA specifically states that "window replacement" is not minor repair or maintenance.

Who must follow the rule?

According to the EPA, the rule applies as follows: "In general, anyone who is paid to perform work that disturbs paint in housing and child-occupied facilities built before 1978, including but not limited to: residential rental property owners/managers; general contractors; special trade contractors including painters, plumbers, carpenters and electricians." As to landlords and property managers, the EPA booklet says, "The receipt of rent payments or salaries derived from rent payments is considered compensation under the EPA's lead paint rule. Therefore, renovation activities performed by landlords or employees of landlords are covered [by the rule]."

What are some of the rule requirements?

Rental property owners or contractors working on your rentals, who renovate, repair, or prepare surfaces for painting in pre-1978 rental housing must, before beginning work, provide tenants with a copy of EPA's lead hazard information pamphlet Renovate Right: Important Lead Hazard Information for Families, Child Care Providers, and Schools. Owners of these rental properties must document compliance with this requirement. The EPA werbsite provides a sample pre-renovation disclosure form, which may be used for this purpose.

Understand that after April 22, 2010, landlords who work on their own properties or contractors doing the work, and perform above mentioned projects in pre-1978 rental housing, must be certified and follow the lead-safe work practices required by EPA's Renovation, Repair and Remodeling rule. If you are the landlord/owner and do the work yourself, you must be a trained renovator. You are allowed to teach any workers helping you and they perform the work under your training. And, if you aren't a contractor, and are an owner/landlord, then besides being "a trained renovator", you have to file with the EPA that you or your company is certified and responsible for your trained workers.To become certified, property owners and contractors must submit an application for certification and fee payment to EPA.

A "certified renovator" must be assigned to each renovation project, and "must be available, either on-site or by telephone, at all times renovations are being conducted." This person must have completed an 8-hour training course approved by the EPA. A full list of providers is listed at: http://www.epa.gov/lead/pubs/renovation.htm

Property owners who perform renovation, repairs, and painting jobs in rental property should also:
* Learn the lead laws that apply to you regarding certification and lead-safe work practices beginning in April 2010.
* Keep records to demonstrate that you and any one working under your supervision have been trained in lead-safe work practices and that you followed lead-safe work practices on the job. To make recordkeeping easier, you may use the sample recordkeeping checklist on the EPA website that was developed to help renovators comply with the renovation recordkeeping requirements that will take effect in April 2010.

Any requirements for homeowners working at their own Home?

If you are a homeowner performing renovation, repair, or painting work in your own home, EPA's RRP rule does not cover your project. However, you have the ultimate responsibility for the safety of your family or children in your care.

Any additional requirements for Contractors working on your rentals?

Any contractors who perform renovation, repairs, and painting jobs on your rental property should also:
* Take training to learn how to perform lead-safe work practices.
* Find a training provider that has been accredited by EPA to provide training for renovators under EPA's Renovation, Repair, and Painting (RRP) Program.
* Please note that if contractors previously completed an eligible renovation training course they may take the 4-hour refresher course instead of the 8-hour initial course from an accredited training provider to become a certified renovator.
* Provide a copy of your EPA or state lead training certificate to landlord clients.
* Tell landlord clients what lead-safe methods you will use to perform the job.
* Learn the lead laws that apply to them regarding certification and lead-safe work practices beginning in April 2010.
* Ask landlord client to share the results of any previously conducted lead tests.
Provide landlord clients with references from at least three recent jobs involving homes built before 1978.
* Firms are required to be certified, their employees must be trained in use of lead-safe work practices, and lead-safe work practices that minimize occupants' exposure to lead hazards must be followed.
* Keep records to demonstrate that you and your workers have been trained in lead-safe work practices and that you followed lead-safe work practices on the job. To make recordkeeping easier, you may use the sample recordkeeping checklistfrom their website that EPA has developed to help contractors comply with the renovation recordkeeping requirements that will take effect in April 2010.
* Read about how to comply with EPA's rule in the EPA Small Entity Compliance Guide to Renovate Right.
* Read about how to use lead-safe work practices in EPA's Steps to Lead Safe Renovation, Repair and Painting. NOTE:


What is the penalty for landlords or contractors who do not comply with the EPA rule?

Fines for violating RRP Rule requirements can be up to $37,500 per incident, per day.

Above excerpts are taken in part from the EPA website. For additional information, clarification or answers to frequently asked questions, refer to the EPA website.

Comments and Opinions

Comments and Opinions are welcomed on this blog. Glad to know that folks are interested in reading this blog. Although it would be extremely helpful if you could translate your comments into english. Of late, several comments are in chinese. I've attempted to translate (using a universal program) the last comment left on the "Tax Tips" post to:

Success is a ladder, his hands in his pockets was not climb the. ........................................

I'm just not sure that I've done this translation justice.

Tax Tips for Income Property Owners

Landlords can greatly increase the depreciation deductions they receive the first few years they own rental property by using segmented depreciation.

Careful planning can permit you to deduct, in a single year, the cost of improvements to rental property that you would otherwise have to deduct over 27.5 years.

You can rent out a vacation home tax-free, in some cases.

Most small landlords can deduct up to $25,000 in rental property losses each year.

A special tax rule permits some landlords to deduct 100% of their rental property losses every year, no matter how much.
People who rent property to their family or friends can lose virtually all of their tax deductions.

Question for discussion: Tenant misses work, should property owner pay?

Q: Due to excessive flooding tenant stayed home from work to monitor the water level and salvage personal belongings stored in the basement. As a result, the tenant requested the property owner for reimbursement of lost wages. Should the landlord compensate the tenant? What is your opinion?